In 2024, sales of fab equipment will increase by 14.8%, and NAND equipment will increase by 59%!

On July 14, the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) announced the Mid-year Overall OEM Semiconductor Equipment Forecast Report at the North American International Semiconductor Show (SEMICON West 2023).

The report expects total global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales in 2023 to fall 18.6% from a record $107.4 billion in 2022 to $87.4 billion, and is expected to rebound in 2024, driven by both the front and back manufacturing demand, once again back to the $100 billion level.

SEMI global marketing officer and Taiwan president Cao Shilen analysis, semiconductor equipment market after years of historic boom, this year into the adjustment period, through high-performance computing and everywhere networking business opportunities leading, will be expected to rebound strongly next year, the long-term steady growth forecast of the market remains unchanged.

According to the semiconductor equipment category, the total sales of fab equipment (including wafer processing, fab facilities and optical cover equipment) is expected to decline by 18.8% year-on-year to $76.4 billion this year, which is more than the 16.8% decline forecast by SEMI at the end of last year, but the global semiconductor equipment sales will show signs of recovery in 2024 and return to $100 billion. Among them, fab equipment is the largest volume, sales will reach $87.8 billion, an increase of 14.8%.

The post-process equipment is affected by factors such as the slowdown in the overall global economic situation and weak semiconductor demand, so that last year's decline has continued into this year. This year, semiconductor test equipment market sales will decrease 15% year-on-year to $6.4 billion, and assembly and packaging equipment will decline more sharply, which is expected to decrease 20.5% to $4.6 billion. However, both test equipment and assembly and packaging equipment sales will improve next year, and are expected to grow 7.9% and 16.4%, respectively.

According to the application technology category of semiconductor equipment sales, the two major categories of foundry and logic process, which account for more than half of the total wafer manufacturing equipment sales, are expected to decline 6% this year from the same period last year to $50.1 billion, reflecting the weaker end market environment. In addition, advanced foundry and logic process demand is expected to remain stable this year, offset by increased spending on mature nodes, while foundry and logic process investment is also expected to grow 3% next year.

DRAM equipment sales, on the other hand, will fall 28% to $8.8 billion this year due to continued weak consumer and enterprise demand for memory and flash memory, and rebound 31% to $11.6 billion next year. The NAND device market has also declined this year, down 51% year-on-year to $8.4 billion, but is expected to grow 59% next year to $13.3 billion.

According to the difference in semiconductor equipment sales, this year and next year, mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea will remain in the top three regions for global equipment spending. Taiwan is expected to take the top spot this year, with China returning to the top next year, and equipment spending in most tracking regions follows the same pattern, falling this year and returning to the growth curve next year.