Forecast: semiconductor market to recover at 20% CAGR by 2024

        With the exploding demand for AI (Artificial Intelligence) and HPC (High Performance Computing) globally, coupled with stabilizing demand for smartphones, personal computers, infrastructure, and resurgent growth in the automotive industry, the semiconductor industry is expected to witness a new wave of growth, with key products that are witnessing growth in demand including Logic ICs, Analog ICs, Microprocessor and Microcontroller ICs, and Memory.

        Eight Growth Areas and Market Trends in the Semiconductor Market Forecast to 2024:

        1. Semiconductor sales market will recover in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 20 percent

        The process of inventory depletion in the supply chain continues due to weak market demand. Despite some sporadic short-term orders and rush orders in the second half of 2023, it is still difficult to reverse the 20% annual decline in the first half of the year, and as a result, the semiconductor sales market is still expected to decline by 12% in 2023. After the memory market declined by more than 40% in 2023, the effect of reducing production to push up product prices is expected to be a driver of market growth in 2024, coupled with the increasing penetration of high-priced HBMs. With the gradual recovery of smartphone demand and strong demand for artificial intelligence chips, the semiconductor market is expected to return to growth in 2024, with an annual growth rate of more than 20%.

         2. ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance System) and infotainment drive the automotive semiconductor market

        Although the growth of the automotive market remains resilient, the trend of automotive intelligence and electrification is obvious, and is an important driver for the future development of the semiconductor market. ADAS accounts for the largest share of the automotive semiconductor market, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will reach 19.8% by 2027, accounting for 30% of the automotive semiconductor market in that year. Driven by automotive intelligence and connectivity, infotainment accounts for the second largest share of the automotive semiconductor market, with a CAGR of 14.6% by 2027, accounting for 20% of the current year's market. Overall, more and more automotive electronics will rely on chips, which means that the demand for semiconductors will be long-term and stable.

        3. Semiconductor AI applications expand from data centers to personal devices

        AI is on the rise as data centers require higher computing power, data processing capabilities, complex large-scale language models, and big data analytics. With the developme

        Although the performance of IC design companies in Asia-Pacific was relatively subdued in 2023 due to long-term inventory rationalization, most suppliers remained resilient under market pressure. Suppliers are actively investing and innovating to remain relevant in the supply chain. In addition, IC design companies continued to cultivate technology by capitalizing on the use of AI in client devices and automotive. New growth opportunities will emerge as the global personal device market gradually recovers, and the overall market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 14% through 2024.

        5. Foundry industry advanced process demand surge

        Wafer foundry industry by inventory adjustment and the impact of weak demand environment, capacity utilization in 2023 fell sharply, especially above 28nm mature process technology. However, 12-inch fabs began a slow recovery in the second half of 2023 due to a rebound in demand for some consumer electronics products and demand for artificial intelligence, with the recovery in advanced processes being the most pronounced. Looking ahead to 2024, with the efforts of TSMC, Samsung, Intel and other companies, as well as the gradual stabilization of end-user demand, the market will continue to rebound, the global semiconductor foundry industry is expected to achieve double-digit growth next year.

         6. China's production capacity growth and mature process price competition intensified

        Under the influence of the U.S. ban, China is actively expanding production capacity. In order to maintain capacity utilization, the Chinese industry continues to provide preferential prices, which is expected to "non-China" foundry pressure. In addition, with wafer production focused on mature processes, industrial control and automotive IC inventories from H2 2023 to H1 2024 will have to be absorbed in the short term, which will continue to put pressure on suppliers and their ability to regain bargaining power.

        7. 2.5/3D packaging market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2023 to 2028

        As the functionality and performance requirements of semiconductor chips continue to increase, advanced packaging technologies are becoming increasingly important. The 2.5/3D packaging market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2023 to 2028, making it a high-profile segment of the semiconductor packaging and testing market.

         8.CoWoS Supply Chain Capacity Doubles to Boost AI Chip Supply

        The AI wave has led to a surge in server demand, which relies on TSMC's advanced packaging technology CoWoS. Currently, there is still a 20% gap between supply and demand for CoWoS. In addition to NVIDIA, international IC design companies are also increasing orders. CoWoS capacity is expected to increase by 130% by the second half of 2024, and more vendors will aggressively enter the CoWoS supply chain. it is expected that the supply of AI chips will be even stronger in 2024, and will become an important driving force in the development of AI applications.